基于时序分析及CNN-BiLSTM-AM的阶跃型滑坡位移预测
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兰州交通大学电子与信息工程学院 兰州 730070

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P642.22

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甘肃省教育科技创新项目(221jyibgs-05)、甘肃省军民融合专项(2020JG01)、甘肃省重点研发计划(21YF5GA158)


Displacement prediction of step-like landslide based on temporal analysis and CNN-BiLSTM-AM
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    摘要:

    三峡库区滑坡受降雨和库水位变化的影响,位移呈现出阶跃式的增长趋势。传统基于递归神经网络的模型对阶跃型滑坡位移预测能力不足,为解决这一问题,提出一种基于时序分析及CNN-BiLSTM-AM的滑坡位移动态预测模型。首先使用变分模态分解方法(VMD)将序列分解为趋势项、周期项和随机项。采用二次指数平滑法拟合趋势项位移,然后引入最大互信息系数法(MIC)计算各类影响因子与周期项位移相关性,对于周期项和随机项位移采用CNN-BiLSTM-AM混合模型进行多因素和单因素预测,最终累加各分量预测值得到累积位移预测结果。以三峡库区秭归县八字门滑坡监测点ZG110和ZG111进行实验分析。实验结果表明,所提方法在最终累计位移预测结果中拟合系数R2达0.984和0.987,平均绝对误差MAE分别为5.334和3.947,均方根误差RMSE分别为6.196和4.941,相比CNN-LSTM、SSA-KELM和NARX方法,所提方法能够更好的捕捉监测数据的时间相关性,预测精度显著提高,可为阶跃型滑坡预警及防治工作提供参考。

    Abstract:

    Landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area are influenced by rainfall and reservoir water level changes, resulting in a stepwise increase in displacement. Traditional models based on recurrent neural networks have insufficient predictive capabilities for stepwise landslide displacement. To address this issue, a dynamic landslide displacement prediction model based on time series analysis and CNN-BiLSTM-AM is proposed. Firstly, the sequence is decomposed into trend components, periodic components, and random components using the Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) method. The trend component displacement is fitted using the second-order exponential smoothing method. Then, the Maximum Mutual Information Coefficient (MIC) method is introduced to calculate the correlation between various influencing factors and periodic component displacement. For both periodic and random component displacements, a hybrid CNN-BiLSTM-AM model is used for multi-factor and single-factor prediction. Finally, the predicted values of each component are accumulated to obtain the cumulative displacement prediction results. Experiments were conducted at monitoring points ZG110 and ZG111 of the Bazimen landslide in Zigui County, Three Gorges Reservoir Area. Experimental results show that the proposed method achieves fitting coefficients R2 of 0.984 and 0.987 in the final cumulative displacement prediction results, with average absolute errors (MAE) of 5.334 and 3.947, and root mean square errors (RMSE) of 6.196 and 4.941, respectively. Compared to CNN-LSTM, SSA-KELM, and NARX methods, the proposed method better captures the temporal correlations in monitoring data, significantly improving prediction accuracy, and providing valuable references for stepwise landslide early warning and mitigation efforts.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-07-25
  • 最后修改日期:2023-09-28
  • 录用日期:2023-10-07
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